Friday, March 2, 2012

At what point in a rollover lottery does it become worthwhile for a syndicate to buy all possible tickets?

In the UK, for example, there are 14 million different possible number permutations. So if the rollover hit 拢140 million and the syndicate had bought all 14 million possibilties, then even if another 9 people hit the jackpot they would break even.



And that doesn't include all the income from tickets winning smaller prizes.At what point in a rollover lottery does it become worthwhile for a syndicate to buy all possible tickets?
It never does. It is possible, of course, but then it's possible to win the 拢78,000,000 Eurolotto jackpot by buying a single ticket. It's also possible to be run over by a bus on the way to pick up your winnings.



See, it all comes down to percentages. Except for the fixed 拢10 for three numbers, the prizes handed out by the National Lottery - in fact, by every lottery in the world - are not fixed: they are a percentage of the prize pool. Generally between 60 and 70% of the money taken in by the lottery will be handed out as prizes. In the UK it is 60%. This simply means that the larger your investment in the lottery the closer you are going to get to that 60% return. Think of it this way: if you play roulette, you win 35 times your stake when your number comes up. If you cover every number on the roulette wheel, what happens? Well, since there are 36 numbers on a roulette wheel, (for the sake of this illustration, forget about 0 and 00), you're in trouble. Cover all 36 numbers your number will definitely come up and you'll win ... 拢35.00. Bad deal.



That's a simplified example, of course - on the lottery you'll win every second, third and fourth division prize as well as a tenner for every combination of three numbers that there is, but the bugger is you are almost certainly going to have to share those prizes with other people, and quite frankly the samller prizes on the lottery are pretty dismal compared to the odds of winning them.



When the main prize jackpots to 拢20,000,000 - the biggest it has ever been - you are in an even worse position because a buying frenzy will increase the prize pool enormously but will also dilute your odds of regaining your money, and if you don't win the big one by yourself - very likely you won't - you are already on a hiding to nothing as far as your 拢13,999,000 investment is concerned. Incidentally, that buying frenzy will also scupper your chances of ever seeing a 拢140,000,000 jackpot because the odds of someone winning the first prize increase with every ticket bought. Our lottery has never jackpotted four times, and almost certainly never will.



You are in no better position with the Eurolottery or huge national lotteries like the Spanish El Gordo, because they hand out a percentage of the money taken in as prizes, too.



Finally, if you have 拢13,999,000 to invest in the hope of a comfortable retun, there are far, far better, safer and more lucrative ways of doing it than filling in 14,000,000 lottery tickets!
Well, you could lend it to me, frinstance.

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At what point in a rollover lottery does it become worthwhile for a syndicate to buy all possible tickets?
yes but imagine if someone filled the sheet in wrong!!! oops!! lol
When it is noticed that a landslide victory is in their favour.At what point in a rollover lottery does it become worthwhile for a syndicate to buy all possible tickets?
24.000.000 to 1 is your chance...
I think you answered your own question, but if 11 people won then you would be out of pocket.
In theory if the jackpot was anything over 拢14m it should be profitable assuming there were no other winners. You have answered the question yourself really. The more joint winners the jackpot had the higher the original pot would need to be to ensure you made a profit.



Even if you purchased all combinations and you are guaranteed the jackpot it is purely luck that dictates if anyone else will have the same numbers or not and therefore whether your stake was worthwhile.
The UK National lottery have now stopped massive rollovers. The maximum amount of rollovers is now 3 and if it is not won on the third then the prize is shared amongst the lower winners!
In the UK the chance of winning the lottery is just under 14million to one. Assuming the rollover was above 拢14 million pounds and that no one else wins the jackpot you would make a profit as you would also win a lot of smaller prizes. Hoverver it is not possible as even if you wanted to buy 14 million tickets, you would not have the time or the manpower to fill out the forms and buy the tickets.
im sure you've just answeed your own question. you buy all possible outcomes when the prize is guaranteed to be higher than the costs.

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